scholarly journals Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific. Part II: The Impact of Midlatitude Circulation Characteristics

2000 ◽  
Vol 128 (8) ◽  
pp. 2634-2653 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick A. Harr ◽  
Russell L. Elsberry ◽  
Timothy F. Hogan
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Extratropical Transition ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Circulation Characteristics

Downstream Development Associated with the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

2009 ◽  
Vol 137 (4) ◽  
pp. 1295-1319 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick A. Harr ◽  
Jonathan M. Dea
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
High Amplitude ◽  
Extratropical Transition ◽  
The North ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The North Pacific ◽  
Downstream Development

Abstract The movement of a tropical cyclone into the midlatitudes involves interactions among many complex physical processes over a variety of space and time scales. Furthermore, the extratropical transition (ET) of a tropical cyclone may also result in a high-amplitude Rossby wave response that can extend to near-hemispheric scales. After an ET event occurs over the western portion of a Northern Hemisphere ocean basin, the high-amplitude downstream response often forces anomalous midlatitude circulations for periods of days to a week. These circulations may then be related to high-impact weather events far downstream of the forcing by the ET event. In this study, downstream development following ET events over the western North Pacific Ocean is examined. Local eddy kinetic energy analyses are conducted on four cases of North Pacific tropical cyclones of varying characteristics during ET into varying midlatitude flow characteristics during 15 July–30 September 2005. The goal is to examine the impact of each case on downstream development across the North Pacific during a period in which these events might increase the midlatitude cyclogenesis across the North Pacific during a season in which cyclogenesis is typically weak. Four typhoon (TY) cases from the summer of 2005 are chosen to represent the wide spectrum of variability in ET. This includes a case (TY Nabi 14W) that directly resulted in an intense midlatitude cyclone, a case in which a weak midlatitude cyclone resulted (TY Banyan 07W), a case in which the decaying tropical cyclone was absorbed into the midlatitude flow (TY Guchol 12W), and a case (TY Saola 17W) in which the tropical cyclone decayed under the influence of strong vertical wind shear. The variability in downstream response to each ET case is related to specific physical characteristics associated with the evolution of the ET process and the phasing between the poleward-moving tropical cyclone and the midlatitude circulation into which it is moving. A case of downstream development that occurred during September 2005 without an ET event is compared with the four ET cases.

scholarly journals A Comparison of the Downstream Predictability Associated with ET and Baroclinic Cyclones

2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (11) ◽  
pp. 4651-4672 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan D. Torn
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Ensemble Forecast ◽  
Latent Heat Release ◽  
Propagation Characteristics ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
The Impact

The impact of the extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones and baroclinic cyclogenesis in the western North Pacific (WNP), Atlantic, and southern Indian Ocean (SIO) basins on the predictability of the downstream midlatitude flow is assessed using 30 years of cases from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) Reforecast, version 2. In all three basins, ET is associated with statistically larger 500-hPa geopotential height forecast standard deviation (SD) compared to the forecast climatology. The higher SD values originate from where the TC enters the midlatitudes and spread downstream at the group velocity of the associated wave packet. Of the three basins, WNP ET is associated with the largest amplitude and longest-lasting SD anomalies. Forecasts initialized 2–4 days prior to the onset of ET have larger SD anomalies compared to forecasts initialized during or after the onset of ET. By contrast, the region of positive SD anomaly associated with winter baroclinic cyclones is confined to the upstream trough, with fall cyclones exhibiting some downstream propagation characteristics similar to ET. The ET cases with the larger downstream SD anomaly are characterized by a more amplified ridge downstream of the TC as it enters the midlatitudes. By contrast, ET cases with an upstream trough, large TC position variability at the onset of ET, latent heat release, or upper-tropospheric PV advection by the irrotational wind are not characterized by significantly larger downstream SD compared to cases without an upstream trough or smaller values of these quantities.

scholarly journals Impact of Storm Size on Prediction of Storm Track and Intensity Using the 2016 Operational GFDL Hurricane Model

2017 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 1491-1508 ◽  
Author(s):  
Morris A. Bender ◽  
Timothy P. Marchok ◽  
Charles R. Sampson ◽  
John A. Knaff ◽  
Matthew J. Morin
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Forecast Lead Time ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of storm size on the forecast of tropical cyclone storm track and intensity is investigated using the 2016 version of the operational GFDL hurricane model. Evaluation was made for 1529 forecasts in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, and western North Pacific basins, during the 2014 and 2015 seasons. The track and intensity errors were computed from forecasts in which the 34-kt (where 1 kt = 0.514 m s−1) wind radii obtained from the operational TC vitals that are used to initialize TCs in the GFDL model were replaced with wind radii estimates derived using an equally weighted average of six objective estimates. It was found that modifying the radius of 34-kt winds had a significant positive impact on the intensity forecasts in the 1–2 day lead times. For example, at 48 h, the intensity error was reduced 10%, 5%, and 4% in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, and western North Pacific, respectively. The largest improvements in intensity forecasts were for those tropical cyclones undergoing rapid intensification, with a maximum error reduction in the 1–2 day forecast lead time of 14% and 17% in the eastern and western North Pacific, respectively. The large negative intensity biases in the eastern and western North Pacific were also reduced 25% and 75% in the 12–72-h forecast lead times. Although the overall impact on the average track error was neutral, forecasts of recurving storms were improved and tracks of nonrecurving storms degraded. Results also suggest that objective specification of storm size may impact intensity forecasts in other high-resolution numerical models, particularly for tropical cyclones entering a rapid intensification phase.

scholarly journals Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific: Their Frontal Evolution

2008 ◽  
Vol 136 (6) ◽  
pp. 2066-2090 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naoko Kitabatake
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Global Analysis ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Japan Meteorological Agency ◽  
Extratropical Transition ◽  
Equivalent Potential ◽  
Typhoon Center ◽  
Baroclinic Zone

Abstract Extratropical transition (ET) in the western North Pacific during 2001–02 is examined in terms of frontal evolution and its environment using a gridded global analysis dataset produced by the Japan Meteorological Agency. According to the best-track data created by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo-Typhoon Center, 23 out of 52 (44%) tropical cyclones (TCs) completed ET during these two years. These ET cases are classified into three categories in terms of the lower-tropospheric equivalent potential temperature distributions, characteristics of the TCs, and their environments. Eight TCs (35% of all ET cases) had temporary warm secluded frontal patterns and then occluded patterns at the completion of ET, which is defined as a seclusion–occlusion (SO) type. This occurs downstream of an intense upper-tropospheric trough interacting with a TC, which is then likely to move northward while keeping its tropical characteristics and have a large impact on relatively high latitudes including all the Japan islands. Three TCs (13%) were apparently absorbed into vigorous preexisting fronts in the southwest of midlatitude cyclones; this situation is defined as a cold advection (CA) type. A TC of the CA type is likely to lose its tropical characteristics rapidly in strong cold advection that is equatorward of a relatively straight upper-tropospheric jet stream. The other 12 TCs (52%) were organized into an open-wave frontal cyclone, which is defined as an open-wave (OW) type. This has characteristics of both SO and CA and is more related to the midlatitude baroclinic zone compared with the SO type.

scholarly journals A Statistical Model to Predict the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 451-466
Author(s):  
Melanie Bieli ◽  
Adam H. Sobel ◽  
Suzana J. Camargo ◽  
Michael K. Tippett
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Extratropical Transition ◽  
The North ◽  
Operational Forecasts ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Better Than

Abstract This paper introduces a logistic regression model for the extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and the western North Pacific, using elastic net regularization to select predictors and estimate coefficients. Predictors are chosen from the 1979–2017 best track and reanalysis datasets, and verification is done against the tropical/extratropical labels in the best track data. In an independent test set, the model skillfully predicts ET at lead times up to 2 days, with latitude and sea surface temperature as its most important predictors. At a lead time of 24 h, it predicts ET with a Matthews correlation coefficient of 0.4 in the North Atlantic, and 0.6 in the western North Pacific. It identifies 80% of storms undergoing ET in the North Atlantic and 92% of those in the western North Pacific. In total, 90% of transition time errors are less than 24 h. Select examples of the model’s performance on individual storms illustrate its strengths and weaknesses. Two versions of the model are presented: an “operational model” that may provide baseline guidance for operational forecasts and a “hazard model” that can be integrated into statistical TC risk models. As instantaneous diagnostics for tropical/extratropical status, both models’ zero lead time predictions perform about as well as the widely used cyclone phase space (CPS) in the western North Pacific and better than the CPS in the North Atlantic, and predict the timings of the transitions better than CPS in both basins.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document